Conditional dependence between house prices and oil prices

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Peer-Reviewed Research
  • SDG 11
  • Abstract:

    Abstract: This paper makes use of two copula functions namely the Normal and the student-t copulas to model the Unconditional and conditional dependence structure between real house and oil price returns. Using annual house and oil prices from 1860 to 2013; we find a significant negative unconditional dependence structure between the real house and oil prices returns. To understand the evolution of this type of dependence structure; we develop a time varying Student-t copula model. This model confirms that the level of the current dependence structure beween oil and house prices returns is a function of the previous dependence between the two. Based on the fitted dependence values we identify two types of dependence structure: a weak dependence structure characterised by positive values, and a strong dependence structure characterised by negative values. The paper argues that weak dependence structure is found in regions with large number of energy sector jobs, while strong dependence is found in the rest of the regions. Our sample period is found to be dominated by strong negative dependence structure.